Crisil reduces India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for FY20

05 Sep 2019 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency Crisil has cut India’s current financial year (FY20) Gross domestic products (GDP) growth forecast to 6.3% from its earlier forecast of 6.9%. The agency said that lower GDP growth forecast corroborates that India’s economic slowdown is deeper and more broad-based than suspected. The downward review comes days after GDP growth slowed down to a 25-quarter low of 5% in the June quarter which significantly is even lower than Pakistan’s 5.4 percent growth and is due to the slump in private consumption and a near stalling of manufacturing activities.

It said that A plunge in domestic private consumption demand, slump in manufacturing, halving of merchandise exports growth, and a high-base effect from last year have gnawed away at first-quarter growth. Private consumption growth - the bulwark of India’s growth story in recent years - registered a scant 3.1% in the first quarter, a four-year low.

The last couple of times private consumption fell this sharply was in the first quarter of fiscal 2013 (-0.9%) and third quarter of fiscal 2015 (2.1%), as per the new GDP series. It said in the past few years, households had dipped into their savings and leveraged themselves to support private consumption though, first quarter data shows, they have not been able to sustain the momentum. It added that given the twin trouble of slack private consumption and manufacturing the remaining quarters are unlikely to over reach to take the full year number to its earlier forecast of 6.9%.

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