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Fitch Ratings forecasts India's economic growth at 6.6% for FY20

11 Sep 2019 Evaluate

Keeping India's rating unchanged at BBB- with a stable outlook, Fitch Ratings in its Asia-Pacific Sovereign Credit Overview has forecasted India's economic growth at 6.6% during the current year 2019-20 (FY20), down from 6.8% in the previous year. It said India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth decreased for a fifth consecutive quarter in the April-June quarter to 5%, the lowest in six years. It added that the government has only limited room to ease fiscal policy because of high debt. It also said GDP growth is likely to rebound to 7.1% next year.

It further said the rating balances a strong medium-term growth outlook and relative external resilience with sturdy foreign reserve buffers, against high public debt, financial sector fragilities and some lagging structural factors. It noted that domestic demand is faltering, with both private consumption and investment proving lackluster, while the global trade environment is also weak. As per the report, the contribution of gross fixed capital formation (1.3%) remained weak at the same level of the January-March quarter, when it dropped sharply, while the contribution of private consumption fell to 1.8% in the April-June from an average of 4.6% in the preceding four quarters. Manufacturing grew by only 0.6%.

Fitch went on to list confidence in a sustained reduction in general government debt over the medium term and higher sustained investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances as positive sentiments. On the negative side, it listed a rise in the government debt burden due to absence of fiscal consolidation or higher off-budget spending as well as loose macroeconomic policy settings that cause a return of persistently high inflation and widening current account deficits that could risk external funding stress.

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