Ratings agency ICRA in its latest report has stated India’s steel consumption growth may decelerate to 6% in the current financial year (FY20) as compared to 7.9% in last financial year (FY19) on the back of an unprecedented slowdown in economic activity, as reflected by GDP (gross domestic product) growth tapering down to 5% in Q1 FY20.
Consequently, it said the margin outlook for steelmakers has weakened in the second quarter of FY20 due to a sharp fall in steel prices and firm raw material costs. However, the profitability of steelmakers may recover somewhat in the third quarter of FY20, with a sharp fall in prices of coking coal, key steel-making ingredient, in August 2019, and expectation of better demand from the construction sector during that quarter.
It estimated the industry's operating margin to decline to around 18% in FY20, compared with 23% inFY19, and demand worries will continue to keep steel prices under pressure, which are currently trading at a discount to imported offers. Besides, the report mentioned that globally, steel production growth remained healthy at 4.6% in 7M CY2019 (seven months of the calendar year 2019) on the back of a high output growth in China in H1 CY2019.
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