Credit ratings agency Crisil, in its latest report has said that gross non-performing assets (NPAs) within the Indian banking system may further reduce to 8-8.5 percent by March 2020 from the peak of 11.5 percent in March 2018 as fresh accretion through slippages get slower and also with big ticket resolutions. However, it said that the Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) may continue to face challenges. It added banking system has been afflicted by the scourge of high NPAs for nearly five years now, which has led to net worth erosion and also led to discovery of scams in the sector.
According to the report, the banking system's credit growth will be stable at over 12 percent, on government's recapitalization efforts for the state-run lenders and also the aggressive play by private sector ones, who will grow faster than the system. It pointed out that the level of NPAs in the banking system has at the end of the year will be a final credit growth number they notch up because of the denominator effect. On the NPAs front, it said the fresh slippages are expected to come down to 3-3.5 percent for FY20, as compared to 3.8 percent in the year-ago period and a peak of 7.4 percent in end FY18.
Ratings agency has termed the situation in the crisis-hit NBFC sector as ‘evolving’ and said that the assets under management growth will slow down to 12 percent for the sector, as against 15 percent in the year-ago period and over 18 percent per annum in four years prior to that. It noted that wholesale lending focused entities without a strong parentage will find it difficult and typically such NBFCs also have issues around asset liability mismatches. It stated that there is a possibility of shrinkage in the wholesale pools. However, it said the retail-focused NBFCs and also those with strong parentage will not witness much of difficulties.
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