Rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) in its latest report has warned that the Indian financial sector is facing rising risk of contagion and failure of any large non-banking financial company (NBFC) or housing finance company (HFC) could disrupt interbank market, payments, hurt credit availability and adversely affect country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. That apart, it said the failure of a large finance company may have other consequences, like draining the credit available to the sector.
According to the report, this contagion runs the risk of spreading to real estate companies too. It said finance companies are the largest lenders to this segment and any failure among such institutions could jeopardize credit flows to developers. Given the seriousness of such risks, it expects the government to support systemically important institutions that get into trouble. It also said the support is more likely to be available to banks rather than any finance company.
The report further stated that India's funding conditions remain fragile after the default of Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services (IL&FS), with a tight refinancing market and choppy equity markets, collectively making it difficult for institutions to raise capital. It noted that a bank failure in the current market could exacerbate risks and it may be cheaper for the government to support a bank than letting a shaky credit system undermine the economy. In its base case, it expects that the resolution of weak finance companies will be swift and orderly, and contagion will be managed.
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