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Bank credit growth likely to slow down to 8-8.5% in FY20: ICRA

05 Nov 2019 Evaluate

The rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said bank credit growth is likely to slow down sharply to 8-8.5 percent during current financial year (FY20) as compared to 13.3 percent in FY19, mainly due to decline in incremental credit in the first half of FY20. Moreover, it expects bond market to grow at a slower pace as they remain risk averse towards Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs). It noted that the year-on-year growth in bond volumes is expected to moderate to 4 percent in FY20 from 12 percent in FY19.  

Additionally, the report said the recent changes in mutual funds regulations are likely to result in a decline in the volume of commercial paper (CP) outstanding by March 2020. Considering these three domestic sources of funding, that is bank credit, corporate bonds and CP outstanding, it expects year-on-year credit growth to decline to 6.2-6.8 percent in FY20 from 13.5 percent in the last financial year. It added that a shift of large borrowers such as a NBFCs and housing finance companies (HFCs) to the banking system for their funding requirements had boosted bank credit growth in FY19.

However, ICRA noted that factors such as muted economic growth, lower working capital requirements of various borrowers, along with risk aversion among lenders, have compressed incremental credit in first half of the current fiscal. It said incremental bank credit has fell by Rs 0.19 trillion during H1 FY20, in contrast to the rise of Rs 0.81 trillion during H1 FY18 and Rs 3.51 trillion during H1 FY19. It added that the recent data on bank credit released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reveals that the contraction in incremental credit outstanding to the services as well as the industrial segments, offset the entire growth in credit to the retail segment during H1 FY20.

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