Benchmarks likely to open in red amid weak IIP data

Indian markets ended choppy trading session in green on Monday as banking stocks gained ground, offsetting losses in the information technology and healthcare sectors. Markets remained shut on Tuesday on account of Gurunanak Jayanti. Today, the start of session is likely to be in red amid lackluster cues from Asian peers and weak IIP numbers. In signs of continuing weakness in the economy, India's factory output shrank to the lowest level in eight years as all three broad-based sectors of capital goods production, consumer durables, and infrastructure and construction goods contracted. The Ministry of Statistics’ data showed that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) fell 4.3% in September as compared to a contraction by 1.1% in August 2019. The second straight month of contraction has taken the IIP to its lowest level since it shrank by 5% in October 2011. Besides, investors will be eyeing retail inflation numbers to be out later in the day. Traders will be concern with an SBI research report sharply cut the country's GDP growth forecast to 5% for FY 2019-20 from the earlier projection of 6%. It said the second-quarter GDP growth rate is likely to slip to 4.2% on account of low automobile sales, deceleration in air traffic movements, flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure. Besides, NCAER's Business Confidence Index (BCI), an indicator of business sentiment across Indian industry, stood at 103.1 in the second quarter of 2019-20, falling 15.3% quarter-on-quarter, despite a small reprieve in July 2019. Auto stocks will be in focus with industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers’ (SIAM) statement that passenger vehicle sales in India rose marginally by 0.28% to 2,85,027 units in October, from 2,84,223 units in the year-ago period, aided by positive festive season sentiment and introduction of new models in utility vehicle space, just about managing to snap 11 continuous months of decline in sales. It expressed hope that the positive sentiment would continue in November and December as well, thus helping the industry slowly come out of the slowdown. There will be some reaction in chemicals and fertilizers stocks with union minister for chemicals and fertilizers Sadananda Gowda’s statement that the sector has the potential to contribute over $300 billion to GDP over the next five years when the economy is slated to scale the $5-trillion-mount.

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday led by strong gains in Disney and Facebook amid remarks from President Donald Trump, who hinted at Chinese enthusiasm for a trade deal. Asian markets are trading in red on Wednesday on growing worries US-China trade talks are stalling after President Donald Trump failed to deliver any new information about when the two countries would sign a trade deal.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks reversed their entire losses to end marginally higher on Monday’s trading session. The start of the day was negative, amid report that the US and Indian trade negotiators ended talks on Friday without making major progress on a range of disputes over tariffs and other protectionist measures imposed by both sides that are straining bilateral ties. As per the report, Friday's talks were more about understanding each other's positions in various disputes. Market participants also remained cautious, amid reports that presence of multiple regulators with disparate priorities is hindering the growth of the all important corporate bond market in India. Key indices traded lackluster throughout the day, tracking weak global markets. Domestic sentiments were sluggish during trading session, as private brokerage firm massively cut its GDP forecast for India to a low 4.9 percent for the year from 5.7 percent earlier, saying the economy is going through a deeper trough and even a sub-par recovery is at least a year away. However, in the last leg of the trade, key indices staged recovery, taking support from report that India Inc believes that Indian economy possesses strong fundamentals and will revive on account of various reform measures taken by the government. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 21.47 points or 0.05% to 40,345.08, while the CNX Nifty was up by 5.30 points or 0.04% to 11,913.45.