Indian economy likely to grow 5% in FY20: SBI Research

13 Nov 2019 Evaluate

Amid economic growth slowdown, State Bank of India’s (SBI) Economic Research Department in its Ecowrap report has sharply cut India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 5% for Fiscal Year 2019-20 (FY20) from the earlier projection of 6%. In its report, it said the second quarter GDP growth rate is likely to slip to 4.2% on account of low automobile sales, deceleration in air traffic movements, flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure. Though, it also said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2%.

In order to propel economic growth, the report said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may go for ‘larger rate cuts’ in December monetary policy review. In October, while reducing the key policy rate (repo) by 25 basis points for the fifth time in a row, the RBI had also reduced its growth forecast to 6.1% for 2019-20 from 6.9%. Besides, India’s GDP growth had dipped to about a six-year low of 5% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Terming the decline in September IIP by 4.3% as quite alarming, it said ‘our acceleration rate for 33 leading indicators at 85% in October 2018 is down to just 17% in September 2019, with such decline gaining traction from March 2019’. The report further said that the growth rate in 2019-20 should be looked through the prism of synchronised global slowdown (countries have witnessed 22-716 basis point decline between June 2018 and June 2019, and India cannot be isolated). India is also significantly lower in Economic Uncertainty Index when compared globally.

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