ICRA forecasts India's GDP growth at 4.7% for Q2FY20

22 Nov 2019 Evaluate

Amid quiet domestic demand and weak investment activity, ratings agency ICRA has said it expects further deterioration in the growth of India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 4.7% in second quarter of current fiscal year (Q2FY20) from 5.0% in Q1FY20. It also forecast the country's gross value added (GVA) at basic prices in year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis to 4.5% in the quarter ending September of FY2020 against 4.9% in Q1FY20. It added that the agriculture and services may maintain the growth rate recorded in Q1.

ICRA said with subdued domestic demand, investment activity, and non-oil merchandise exports weighing upon volume expansion, manufacturing growth is expected to decelerate further from the marginal 0.6% in Q1 of FY2020. Heavy rainfall in August-September of 2019 along with the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and constrained activities in the mining and construction sectors also contributed to a lower demand for electricity from the agricultural and household sectors.

In addition to that, muted industrial activity reduced the demand for electricity generation. The rating agency expects the Y-o-Y GVA growth of mining and quarrying, construction, and electricity, gas, water supply and other utilities to weaken in Q2 of FY2020. It also said various lead indicators of trade reveal a broad-based deterioration in Q2 of FY2020, which would weigh upon service sector growth in that quarter.

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