Domestic ratings agency Crisil in its latest report has said that the steep tariff hikes of up to 50% being implemented by the debt-laden telecommunication companies (telcos) which held prices at rock bottom levels for nearly five years, may double the industry's operating profit to Rs 60,570 crore in FY21 from Rs 29,450 crore in FY19. It noted that it is a structural positive for the sector which has been weighed down by weak cash flows and rising debt levels and added that the tariff hikes offers opportunity for the industry to repair its financials and become sustainable.
According to the report, the crucial part now is pricing discipline and extent of down-trading from current plans to cheaper ones by subscribers. That will determine the kind of net gains that telcos will make in the near-term. It also stated that the industry's debt to operating profit ratio will come down to 4.6 times from the present 7.5 times, if the operating profit improvements indeed happen as expected. It added that the top three players presently owe Rs 3.3 lakh crore to the system.
The agency further stated that the average revenue per user (ARPU), arguably the most widely tracked number by analysts, will go up by 25 percent following the price hikes to Rs 145 next fiscal from Rs 116 earlier. It said 80 percent of the additional revenue will flow straight into the operating profit given the high operating leverage at which the companies operate. It added that the tariff hikes would accelerate SIM consolidation and curb subscriber additions.
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