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IMF may downgrade India’s growth forecast significantly in January: Gita Gopinath

18 Dec 2019 Evaluate

International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Chief Economist Gita Gopinath has said that IMF may cut India's growth estimate significantly in January 2020. She mentioned that the IMF would be reviewing the October estimates in January.  The IMF in its October forecast had projected 6.1 per cent growth for India in 2019 and the same to go up to 7 per cent in 2020. She said ‘if you look at recent incoming data, we would be revising our numbers and come up with numbers in January, and it is likely to be a significant downward revision for India.’ she noted that India has thrown a surprise by being the only emerging market to have had such a show.

Besides, she sounded doubtful about the country achieving $5 trillion GDP target by FY2025, and chose to present her case arithematically.  She said India will have to grow at 10.5 per cent in nominal terms as against 6 per cent in the last six years, and 8-9 per cent in real terms in order to achieve the target. She pitched for the government utilising its massive mandate to bring in land and labour market reforms as essential aspects if India were to achieve its $5 trillion aspiration.

Moreover, she warned that the fiscal situation in India is 'challenging' and the country will certainly breach the 3.4 per cent deficit target. On the fiscal management front, she acknowledged the cut in corporate taxes announced earlier this year, but rued that there was no revenue increasing measure announced in parallel.

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