Fitch Ratings cuts growth forecast for India to 4.6% for FY20

23 Dec 2019 Evaluate

Amid factoring in significant deceleration in past few quarters on account of credit squeeze and deterioration in business and consumer confidence, Fitch Ratings has cut its growth forecast for India to 4.6 per cent for the current financial year (FY20) from the previous estimation of 5.6 per cent. However, it expects growth to gradually recover to 5.6 per cent in FY21 and 6.5 per cent in FY22 with support from easing monetary and fiscal policy and structural measures that may also support growth over the medium term.

It reaffirmed India's rating at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook saying the rating balances a still strong medium-term growth outlook compared with similar category peers and relative external resilience stemming from solid foreign-reserve buffers against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors, including governance indicators and GDP per capita. Meanwhile, it said its rating for India incorporates the expectation of moderate slippage in the fiscal deficit target of 3.3 per cent of GDP in FY20.

Besides, the Fitch's FY2020 growth forecast is lower than 4.9 per cent projection by Moody's and 5.1 per cent by Asian Development Bank. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revised GDP growth forecast to 5 per cent for 2019-20 from 6.1 per cent projected in October.

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