Higher cotton prices may shrink cotton yarn spinners’ operating margins in FY20: CRISIL

27 Dec 2019 Evaluate

CRISIL Ratings in its latest report has said that higher domestic cotton prices and a sharp fall in exports may shrink operating margin of domestic cotton yarn spinners by 2-4 percentage points in the current financial year (FY20). It noted that a narrowed spread between cotton and yarn prices as compared to the previous fiscal would also impact the margin. It added that higher domestic cotton prices compared with international prices during April-October 2019, a sharp fall in exports mainly to China and Pakistan and the resultant domestic oversupply is likely to lead to this squeeze.

According to the report, China and Pakistan (accounting for 35 percent and 5 percent of yarn exports, respectively, in fiscal 2019) have reduced imports from India by 50-60 percent this fiscal. As a result, it said exports in the first seven months of fiscal 2020 are lower by 38 percent leading to higher domestic inventories and pressure on spreads. Considering recent reduction in domestic cotton prices to Rs 105-115 per kg and stable international cotton prices, it said profitability of spinners in the second half (of current fiscal) should be higher than in the first half. However, it said this may not be sufficient to offset the steep negative impact on profitability seen in the first half.

The report further said that the impact on the margin will vary with size and product profile of the companies, operating margins for large spinners (having a capacity of over 50,000 spindles) could be lower by 200 bps (2 per cent) in fiscal 2020, while the impact on mid-and small-sized spinners (with less than 20,000 spindles) could be twice that. It also explained that the dynamics of the spread between international and domestic prices of cotton also affects profitability.

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