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Aggregate fiscal deficit of states to touch 3% of GDP in FY20: Ind-Ra

01 Jan 2020 Evaluate

Owing to factors like decline in tax revenue, a lower nominal GDP and higher expenditure, credit rating agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report estimated that the aggregate fiscal deficit of states will touch 3.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY20 as against the budgeted figure of 2.6%.

The rating agency said that in aggregate, states have budgeted Rs 30.97 lakh crore in the total revenue for FY20, while tax revenue growth has been assumed to grow 11.5%. Further, it said that states' tax collections fall under three different revenue heads -- states' own tax revenue (SOTR, state goods and service tax (SGST)), share in central taxes (central goods and service tax (CGST)) and grants (GST compensation).

Ind-Ra also underlined that share of states in central taxes has been budgeted to grow 13.98% year-on-year in FY20. However, it contracted 2.7% year-on-year in FY20 (April to October), exerting pressure on states' fiscal deficit.

Besides, the report said that while states in aggregate have budgeted Rs 8.5 lakh crore as their share in central taxes, the Central government has budgeted states' share at Rs 8.1 lakh crore in the FY20 Union Budget. Even to meet the Rs 8.1 lakh crore target, central taxes will have to grow at 15.1% during the rest of FY20 (November 2019 to March 2020) which looks unlikely.

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