The World Bank in its latest edition of the Global Economic Prospects has stated that growth in India is projected to decelerate to 5% in financial year (FY) 2019/20, which ends March 31, amid enduring financial sector issues. But, it also said that growth is likely to recover to 5.8% in the following financial year. It added that key risks to the outlook include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in major economies, a re-escalation of regional geopolitical tensions, and a setback in reforms to address impaired balance sheets in the financial and corporate sectors.
In India, the World Bank said tighter credit conditions in the non-banking sector are contributing to a substantial weakening of the domestic demand in the country. It also said activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption. It added that India’s economic activity slowed substantially in 2019, with the deceleration most pronounced in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, whereas government-related services sub-sectors received significant support from public spending. GDP growth decelerated to five percent and 4.5% in the April-June and July-September quarters of 2019, respectively, the lowest readings since 2013.
On the global front, the report said the global economic growth is forecast to edge up to 2.5% in 2020 as investment and trade gradually recover from last year's significant weakness, but downward risks persist. The US' growth is forecast to slow to 1.8% this year, reflecting the negative impact of earlier tariff increases and elevated uncertainty. The Euro area's growth is projected to slip to a downwardly revised 1% in 2020 amid weak industrial activity. It added that with the growth in emerging and developing economies likely to remain slow, policymakers should seize the opportunity to undertake structural reforms that boost broad-based growth, which is essential to poverty reduction.
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