Indian economy to expand with a slower pace of 8.5 percent in 2011-12: OECD

26 May 2011 Evaluate

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has projected the Indian economy to expand 8.5 percent in 2011-12, much lower than the growth of 9.6 percent witnessed in 2010-11 financial year, indicating that economic expansion would be slower.The OECD stated that India’s growth slowed to a more sustainable pace towards the end of 2010, after strong post-crisis rebound driven by a surge in private investment. Going forward, growth will pick up somewhat, underpinned by buoyant corporate sentiment and demand for infrastructure spending. Tighter monetary policy and a modest reduction in the deficit will help cool demand somewhat.

The OECD a group of 34 developed and developing nations worldwide regularly turn to one another to identify problems, discuss and analyze them, and promote policies to solve them. It has stated that after moderating towards the end of 2010, inflation has veered up again and remains high. Moreover, inflationary pressures have become more generalized, with non-food prices accelerating, the OECD also stated that further liberalization of foreign direct investment in the retail sector would promote competition and help modernize supply chains, thereby reducing food inflation pressures.

The recent development is much in line with RBI lowering its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for FY-12 to 8 percent, sharply lower than the 9 per cent estimates of the Government. RBI Governor D Subbarao, during his policy review in the beginning of the month has stated that facing downside risks including sovereign debt problems in the euro-zone, high commodity prices, especially of oil, and accentuation of inflationary pressure in the emerging market economies, the Indian economy is likely to grow 8 per cent in 2011-12. Not only that, later on Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee too has conceded that it would not be possible to achieve the targeted GDP growth rate of nine per cent during the current fiscal owing to volatility in global commodity prices. However, he expressed confidence that headline inflation has moderated to 7.0-7.5 per cent from the current high of near nine per cent.

Two other international bodies, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank too had forecast that India's economy would grow at 8 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. Prior to that ADB has also lowered its growth forecast for the Indian economy to 8.2% for the current fiscal from the earlier projection of 8.7% on the back of surging global oil prices and the RBI’s tight monetary policy.

 

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