Expressing concern over fiscal condition of India, former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg has said the country’s real fiscal deficit may be higher at 4.5-5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in fiscal year 2019-20 (FY20). Spike in deficit is likely due to an expected shortfall in revenue, and higher spending. Besides, the government had pegged India’s FY20 deficit in the budget presented in July at 3.3% of GDP.
Garg said that a large portion of the deficit is being used to finance consumption expenditure, which is typically not a healthy practice. Factoring in off-budget expenditures including for bank recapitalisation, food subsidies, irrigation schemes and sanitation schemes, he estimated actual fiscal deficit of the Centre at 4.39% in FY18 (reported 3.5%) and 4.66% in FY19 (3.4%). He estimates the deficit at 4.5-5% in FY20 - budget estimate 3.3 per cent, which is likely to be revised to at least 3.5 per cent.
Former finance secretary sees a shortfall of Rs 2-2.5 lakh crore on revenue side in FY20 and off-budget financing at Rs 1.75-2.25 lakh crore. He said small savings schemes should be discontinued since they disrupted monetary policy transmission. He also criticised policies relating to fiscal deficit and debt management, saying less than 25% of the Centre’s annual borrowings is utilised for real capex as consumption expenditure is taking precedence.
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