Domestic ratings agency Crisil in its latest report has said that the Rs 4-lakh crore fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is likely to register 9 percent growth in the current financial year (FY20), down 4 percentage points. However, it said an expected recovery in rural demand, coupled with steady urban demand, is set to lift revenue growth of the FMCG industry to 10-11 percent in FY21. It added that better storage levels in reservoirs, which are over 40 percent higher than the year-ago period due to better rains, an 8 percent increase in winter crop output and better visibility for the upcoming seasons will lift the rural consumption.
According to the report, higher spending by the government on rural infrastructure could benefit rural incomes and thereby demand for FMCG products. It said urban areas growth for the FMCG industry is unlikely to improve over the 8 percent level due to a growth in modern retail. However, the growth will not be uniform across companies. Besides, it noted that packaged food segment, which accounts for 50 percent of the industry's revenues will continue to grow at up to 10 percent in FY20 and inch up to 12 percent in next fiscal on a shift to branded products and deeper penetration of product segments.
The report further stated that the personal and home care segment, which accounts for a third of FMCG revenue, is also likely to see recovery in growth to 8-9 percent in FY21 from 6-7 percent in FY20, attributing the slower growth to a focus on discretionary spend-driven products in the segment. It expects the operating profits of companies to remain healthy at up to 20 percent level despite a hit of up to 1.5 percentage points on raw material costs and promotional expenses. It added that the credit profiles of FMCG companies are likely to remain stable, supported by well-capitalised balance sheets.
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