In line with the projections made by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), industry body the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in its Economic Outlook Survey has projected India’s annual median Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5% for 2019-20. Besides, the economic growth for the third quarter (Q3) of 2019-20 has been pegged at 4.7%. It said moderation in global growth forecast, escalating geo-political tensions, and uncertainty around trade deal between US-China and BREXIT outcome still form major risk factors to India's growth in 2020. Though, it added that growth is likely to improve to 5.5% in 2020-21.
As per the survey report, the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities at 2.6% for 2019-20, the industry and services sector at 3.5% and 7.2%, respectively, during the current year. The survey was conducted during December and January 2019-20 amongst economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector. The survey further said concerns remain on external front with exports projected to contract in 2019-20. It also said merchandise exports are expected to decline by 2.1%, while imports are expected to decline 5.5% during the year. Moreover, median current account deficit forecast was pegged at 1.4% of GDP for 2019-20.
FICCI mentioned participating economists said that a shortfall in government's revenue collections seems imminent this year on the back of lower than anticipated nominal growth. In order to augment government's revenue collections, they called for measures to boost the country's nominal GDP growth. Citing weak consumption demand as a major impediment to India's growth, the economists cautioned against any changes in the GST rates to improve revenue collections as it would prove to be counterproductive. The survey economists recommended undertaking expansionary fiscal and monetary policies along with a slew of reforms to tackle the structural problems facing the economy.
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