India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has said that state government finances may continue witnessing revenue pressure in financial year 2020-21 (FY21) on account of subdued economic growth. The agency has cut its outlook on state finances to stable-to-negative for FY21 from stable, citing higher revenue expenditure and outstanding GST compensation.
Ind-Ra has pegged states' aggregate fiscal deficit to be around 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY21, higher than the budgeted 2.6 per cent of GDP for FY20. It expects states' aggregate tax revenue (including devolutions from the central government) and revenue receipts to grow 11 per cent and 9.9 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
Besides, the agency expects the states' aggregate debt/GDP to rise to 27.5 per cent in FY21 from the budgeted 24.7 per cent for FY20. It mentioned states' aggregate debt burden would increase as states resort to fund the fiscal deficit by way of higher market borrowings. It estimates the gross market borrowings of states to increase to Rs 6.09 lakh crore in FY21 from its estimated Rs 5.96 lakh crore for FY20.
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