India likely to clock GDP growth of 5.6% in FY21: Fitch Ratings

04 Feb 2020 Evaluate

Expressing cautiousness over India’s economic growth, Fitch Ratings has said the country is expected to clock a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 5.6% in the next financial year (FY21) from 4.6% in FY20. It added that Budget 2020 has not ‘materially altered’ its view on the country's growth outlook. It also said ‘the fiscal slippage announced in the government's new FY21 budget is modest relative to its previous targets, and is consistent with our expectations when we affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook last December, given slowing growth momentum’. Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8% of GDP in FY20 as compared to 3.3% previously planned. The fiscal deficit target for FY21, has been fixed at 3.5%.

It projected general government debt to remain close to 70% of GDP through FY22 and said that the new budget targets imply some further postponement of fiscal consolidation, in line with the government's ambivalent approach to consolidation of the past few years when deficit outturns have typically exceeded budget targets. It added that India's high public debt relative to peers is a rating weakness. The report further noted that Budget contains some measures which may support GDP growth in the medium-term, including reduced individual income tax rates, some easing of restrictions on foreign portfolio inflows, continued focus on public infrastructure spending, and schemes of which the details remain to be announced to encourage manufacturing in the electronics and textiles sectors.

The rating agency said the assumptions in the budget, including nominal growth of 10% and a rise in revenues by 9.2% were ‘broadly credible’ although there were risks to the downside. It said ‘In particular, reductions in the corporate tax rate, as previously announced, and new cuts in income tax rates are likely, in our view, to cause tax revenues to fall in the short run, before any potential medium-term benefits materialise; the divestment target appears optimistic, at over three times the estimated realisation in FY20’. It also said ‘greater fiscal transparency around off-budget financing is welcome, as the new budget now explicitly recognises borrowing from the National Small Savings Fund of 0.8% of GDP in both FY20 and FY21’.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×