Moody's projects real GDP growth at 4.9% for FY20

05 Feb 2020 Evaluate

Moody's Investors Service in its latest report has said that economic growth projections made by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her Budget for 2020-21 appear ambitious given the structural and cyclical challenges facing the Indian economy. It said the budget expects nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 10% in 2020-21, followed by 12.6% and 12.8% in FY2022 and 2023. But, Moody's saw GDP growth rising to around 8.7% in the next financial year beginning April 1 from about 7.5% in the current fiscal. Stating that growth outlook will remain weak, it has put real GDP growth at 4.9% during the current fiscal ending March 31 (FY20), slightly below the government's forecast of 5%. For the next fiscal (FY21), it estimated real GDP growth of 5.5%, from 6.3 per cent previous estimate.

It also said that growth has remained relatively weak as a prolonged deleveraging cycle and ongoing stress among non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs), which has constrained the financial system's overall provision of credit, weigh on consumption and investment. It added that the significant slowdown in financial sector credit growth from NBFI liquidity constraints and asset quality issues among public sector banks has exacerbated prolonged weakness in private investment and a material decline in consumption, due in part to financial stress among rural households and weak job creation.

Moody's said the government will face challenges in achieving its deficit target for the fiscal year ending March 2021, amid persistent structural and cyclical headwinds to growth. It said while the latest budget targets a narrower deficit, prolonged weakness in nominal GDP growth in India, combined with lower revenue collections, has dampened the outlook for fiscal consolidation, raising the risk that the debt burden may not stabilize. It added that the slippage in meeting fiscal deficit targets reflects significantly weaker economic growth and revenue collection than the authorities forecast in July 2019. Any material strengthening in India's public finances is unlikely in the near term as obstacles to growth persist.

The rating agency said while the fivefold rise in deposit insurance limit to Rs 5 lakh is credit positive for banks, the Budget seeking dividends from state-owned companies that are higher than the tax-saving they got from the abolition of the dividend distribution tax (DDT) was credit negative for oil and gas companies. But, the rise in public infrastructure spending and tax exemptions for sovereign wealth funds was credit positive for the infrastructure sector, it said, adding quicker debt recovery and additional interest deduction on home loans was credit positive for Indian securitization transactions.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×