EV penetration likely to remain under 5% over next five years: Icra

06 Feb 2020 Evaluate

Rating agency Icra in its latest report has said that electric vehicle (EV) penetration is expected to remain under 5 per cent over the next five years, despite the aggressive policy push and drive by automakers. The agency has blamed this to the higher vehicle cost due to costly imported batteries, weak public charging infrastructure and inadequate government support. It added being a price sensitive market and the resultant low volume, economies of scale is crucial for an OEM to price its EVs competitively.

It highlighted that the government recently sanctioned 2,636 charging stations, under the Fame 2.0 to incentivise investments in the space, which if fructified, will boost EV acceptance over the long-term. It asserted that government support remains crucial to support EV growth. Assuming subsidy of Rs 1,50,000/vehicle, even just 1 per cent of total domestic passenger vehicle sales in FY20 will need about Rs 450 crore in subsidy support and about Rs 1,300 crore over next three years.

Further it mentioned that at present, EV subsidy priority is towards commercial fleet/taxi operators and less on personal car buyers. Also, high upfront cost of an EV and the higher ownership cost are expected to favour traditional fuel-fired vehicles in the medium term, even in the commercial taxi segment. Besides, it can be noted that globally, EV penetration has been enabled by regulatory support and wider availability of charging stations, with the US and China being the best examples, where there is the mandatory zero emission rules, and restricted licensing for new petrol/diesel vehicles, respectively.

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