MSME loan restructuring extension indicates RBI's shift in stance on asset quality: Fitch

11 Feb 2020 Evaluate

Rating agency Fitch in its latest report has said that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent move on extending the MSME loan restructuring scheme and allowing relaxation in asset classification for certain real estate projects indicate a gradual shift away from its earlier effort to enhance the quality and transparency of asset classification in Indian banking system. It noted that there is a risk that such regulatory forbearance will perpetuate moral hazard, as it follows aggressive lending growth and risk-taking in certain sectors in five years to the financial year ended March 2019.

Fitch said 'It is not clear at the moment whether this forbearance will be extended to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) as well, but we believe that the probability of this is high, considering the impact that the NBFI liquidity squeeze and a slowing economy have had on the MSME and real-estate sectors. In recent years, banks have preferred to lend to NBFIs, which lend heavily to the real estate and MSME sectors, as a way to deploy their excess liquidity, while limiting their own direct exposure to these areas.’

The ratings agency believed that these extensions are only likely to defer asset-quality pressures unless there is a sustained improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Although, it expects India's GDP growth to pick up in the coming months, to 5.6 percent in FY21 from 4.6 percent in FY20, there are still risks to the country's economic outlook. On the RBI's move to exempt cash reserve ratio cut against lending to specific sectors like auto, small businesses and housing, the agency said the move is aimed at improving monetary transmission as interest rates on the three products go down, but flagged concerns on the same.

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