Think tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its latest report has pegged the India’s economic growth at 4.9 per cent for the current fiscal (FY20). Though, it expects the Indian economy to improve its growth rate to 5.6 per cent in 2020-21 (FY21). Besides, the National Statistical Office (NSO) as well as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the GDP growth rate at 5 per cent for the current fiscal. Indian economy grew by 6.1 per cent in 2018-19.
As per the report, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is forecast to be 4.9 per cent in Q3: 2019-20, and 5.1 per cent in Q4: 2019-20. The annual growth rates for 2019-20 and 2020-21 are forecast to be 4.9 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively. The NCEAR has indicated some improvement in the fourth quarter of the current financial year. Elaborating further it said due to better rainfall in the monsoon as well as the post-monsoon seasons and considerable improvement in the storage of water in major reservoirs of the country, the prospects for growth in the agricultural sector remain bright.
Talking about green shoots in the services sector, it said the GVA of the services sector grew at 6.8 per cent in Q1 and 6.9 per cent in Q2 this fiscal. Three lead indicators, viz., tourist arrivals, aviation passenger traffic, and services trade, were the bright spots in Q3: 2019-20. It further said cargo traffic across different transport modes continued to show negative growth in the third quarter of the current fiscal. After falling to 49.2 in October 2019, the Nikkei PMI Services Index showed a sharp and sustained rebound. This signals that the sector is in the process of bottoming out.
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