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Care Ratings projects India’s GDP growth at 4.5% for Q3FY20

26 Feb 2020 Evaluate

Care Ratings in its latest report has projected India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 4.5% for the third quarter (Q3) of current fiscal year (FY20), which is lower than 6.6% GDP growth recorded in the corresponding period a year ago. It also projected Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 4.3% for Q3FY20. For the FY20, it has estimated GDP growth to be at 5% with a downward bias. Low base effect in Q4FY19 will aid growth in Q4FY20. However, sustained low economic activity coupled the possible adverse impact of the outbreak of corona-virus could limit the overall GDP growth for FY20.

The rating agency said that the deceleration in the economy so far has been broad-based with higher government expenditure supporting economic growth. On the expenditure side, lacklustre growth in investment activity and contraction in exports have weighed on GDP growth. At the sectoral level slow growth in case of manufacturing, mining and construction activity have dragged overall GVA. Though, it added that the increased government spending is expected to boost the economic growth.

On the sectoral front, it has projected GVA growth in agriculture and allied activities to be at 3.3% for Q3FY20. Mining and quarrying is projected to contract by 2% in Q3FY20 primarily owing to negative growth seen in core sector growth of coal, crude-oil and natural gas. It also projected contraction of 3% in electricity segment in Q3FY20 on account of significant de-growth of 6% seen in IIP-electricity during the same period. Construction activity is projected to grow at 2.5% in Q3FY20 compared with 9.7% in corresponding period year ago.

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