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Fitch revises down India’s GDP growth forecast to 4.9% in FY20

03 Mar 2020 Evaluate

Fitch Solutions has revised down its forecast for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 4.9 percent in the current fiscal that ends March 31, 2020 from 5.1 percent forecasted previously. The revision is due to its view for disruption in the automotive and electronics supply chain from the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak in China to weigh on India's export manufacturing sector, and for this to have negative knock-on effects on the broad services sector. However, it expected a mild pick-up in GDP growth to 5.4 percent in the next fiscal (FY21) assuming an easing of the virus spread from June, which should see a broad-based improvement in the economic activity.

According to the report, a failure of the FY2020/21 Union Budget to provide support to the industry will also bring little reprieve for a sluggish industry already coming under heavy pressure from a credit squeeze following the collapse of several key Non-Bank Financial Companies (NBFCs). It also expects economic activity to be supported by an improvement in the agriculture sector through better harvest prospects and fiscal support announced in the FY2020/21 Union Budget.

The report also expects manufacturing (14 percent of GDP) growth to remain weak over the near term. It noted that the contraction in manufacturing eased slightly to 0.2 percent in Q3, from 0.4 percent in Q2. Also, it said a continued contraction in total vehicle sales, suggests that the outlook for the automotive industry remains weak. It added that auto industry contributes 7.5 percent to the total GDP and accounts for half of the manufacturing GDP. 

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