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Credit profiles of corporates likely to remain under pressure: Ind-Ra

03 Mar 2020 Evaluate

Amid synchronised and prolonged economic slowdown, rating agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that the credit profiles of corporates are likely to remain under pressure, with at least Rs 10.52 trillion of the corporate debt (16% of system level corporate debt) is vulnerable to default over the next three years.

As per the report, empirically, about 25% of the vulnerable debt is likely to turn delinquent, resulting in additional Rs 2.54 trillion of delinquent debt. This is likely to result in incremental delinquencies to the extent of 4% of the system level corporate debt.

Ind-Ra however noted that, in case the real gross domestic product growth slowdown intensifies (4.5% over FY21-FY22), incremental delinquencies could be higher by an additional 159 basis points (bps) to 5.59% of the system debt. Alternately, in case of a sharp recovery in gross domestic product (growth to 7% over FY21-FY22), delinquencies could be lower by 87 bps to 3.13% of the system debt.

The report is based on the detail analysis done over the degree of vulnerability of the top 500 debt heavy private sector issuers after assessing the mix between productive and non-productive assets (i.e., asset quality) held by each issuer along with their refinancing risk. The report buckets issuers in five categories of vulnerability - low, moderate, high, extreme and stressed. Based on these buckets, the agency has arrived at the estimates of debt at risk and expected credit costs.

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