No change in growth forecasts for emerging countries like India: S&P Global Ratings

06 Mar 2020 Evaluate

Citing the fact that reported coronavirus infections in emerging countries are still low, S&P Global Ratings in its latest report has said that there is no change in growth forecasts for countries including India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Though, it noted that the outlook could quickly deteriorate if the low level of cases was due to minimal testing and if those countries were swept up in financial contagion.

The report said a fast spreading coronavirus outbreak could knock $211 billion off the combined economies of the Asia-Pacific, with Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia among the most exposed. The rating agency has cut its 2020 growth forecast for China to 4.8% from previous estimate of 5.7%. It forecast Australian growth to slow sharply to 1.2% from an already below-trend 2.2% in 2019. Japan would take 0.5 percentage point hit and Korea a 1 percentage point knock.

S&P said the balance of risks remains to the downside due to local transmission, including in economies with low reported cases, secondary transmissions in China as people return to work and tighter financial conditions. In other forecasts, Hong Kong's economy would likely contract by -0.8% in 2020, Singapore's would flat line, and Thailand's expansion likely slow to 1.6%. The coronavirus epidemic, which emanated from China's Hubei province, has claimed more than 3,000 lives worldwide in less than three months, prompting monetary policy easing in major economies including the US.

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