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Crisil slashes India’s economic growth forecast by 50 bps to 5.2% for FY21

20 Mar 2020 Evaluate

Amid fast spreading of coronavirus in India, the rating agency, Crisil has slashed the country’s economic growth forecast by 50 Basis points (bps) to 5.2 percent for fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21) as against earlier forecast of 5.7 percent expansion as the longer Covid-driven shutdowns will further roil the already weak economy. It said the Covid-19 pandemic will leave the economy crippled next fiscal.

It noted that the faster spreading of the pandemic--having hit more than 155 nations--has cast a long shadow over a much-anticipated mild recovery in the domestic economy in FY21, with the WHO declaring it a pandemic. It warned that downside hit to domestic consumption demand is likely due to the social distancing, though it is too early for that to reflect in data. Currently, the other downside to growth is also due to the financial sector stress now percolating to private sector banks.

The rating agency also warned ‘a serious downside to our base case can emerge if the pandemic is not contained by April-June globally, and makes the global slowdown more severe; and if it spreads rapidly in the country, affecting domestic consumption, investment, and production.’ It highlighted that external risks to global growth has increased significantly now.

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