Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has warned that the asset quality pressure for banks and Non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) is expected to increase in the current financial year (FY21) as slower economic activity amid the coronavirus pandemic may affect debt servicing capabilities of borrowers. It noted that the spike in reported non- performing assets (NPAs) would be reflected over the next few quarters. As per ICRA’s estimates, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to slow down to 2 percent during FY21 from estimates of 4.4 percent in FY20.
According to the report, the actual increase in the quantum of NPAs for banks and NBFCs will be known after some more days. It said recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gave a relief package for retail borrowers and businesses by announcing a three-month moratorium on payment of all term loans falling due between March 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020. It expects the asset quality stress is likely to reflect with a lag of 1-2 quarters post the removal of the moratorium and the stress will vary across segments. In case of banks, it said NPA generation will increase as compared to an earlier expectation of moderation in bad loans.
The rating agency further said that credit costs to remain elevated and recoveries will get pushed back for banks. It also said the gross slippage rate for state-owned banks is likely to be 4.5-5 percent and the provision coverage ratio (PCR) may decline to 57-60 percent. It noted that the solvency profile of PSBs will weaken to 53-57 percent from current level of 51 percent. It added that private sector banks are likely to see gross slippage rate of 4-5 per cent and a fall in PCR to 60-62 per cent in the current fiscal.
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