Markets to open in red on Monday; CPI data eyed

Indian markets before going for a long weekend holiday ended higher on Friday tracking trend from strong global cues on hopes of the COVID-19 pandemic approaching its peak. Today, the start of holiday truncated week is likely to be in red following weakness in Asian peers. Investors will be eyeing retail inflation or consumer price index (CPI) data to be out later in the day. Traders will be concerned with rising coronavirus cases in India. According to the Worldometer, in the country, the confirmed coronavirus cases jumped to 9,205 and the death toll mounted to 331 so far. There will be some cautiousness as the World Bank said India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation this fiscal year as the coronavirus outbreak severely disrupts the economy. Besides, overseas investors pulled out a net Rs 9,103 crore from the Indian markets in April so far as the Covid-19 crisis triggered a return to safe haven assets like gold and dollar-denominated securities. Meanwhile, amid high volatility in international markets, India has pitched for a stable oil market that provides reasonable price for producers and affordable rate for consumers. Banking stocks will be in focus with a private report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may stipulate stricter timelines to identify the managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO)-designates in private banks and for them to settle down in their new roles. Also, RBI data showed that bank credit growth decelerated to an over five-decade low of 6.14% in the fiscal ended March 31, 2020, amid a faltering economy, lower demand and risk aversion among banks. There will be some reaction in aviation stocks with ICRA’s report that Indian aviation had a negative growth of 3-5 per cent in the last fiscal-hurting before the coronavirus pandemic and now hurting because of the disease.

The US markets remained closed on Friday on account of Good Friday. Asian markets are trading in red on Monday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies reached an agreement on a record oil production cut.

Back home, Thursday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 9,100 (Nifty) and 31,150 (Sensex) levels, tracking a rise in the global markets on hopes the coronavirus pandemic is nearing a peak and that governments would roll out more stimulus measures. Key indices commenced the session with a gap-up opening as traders took encouragement with a private report stating that a second stimulus package India is poised to announce in coming days will be worth around Rs 1 lakh crore ($13 billion) and focus on help for small and medium businesses weathering the coronavirus outbreak. The mood remained upbeat as the Ministry of Corporate Affairs issued a slew of measures to facilitate the functioning of companies as they grapple with the ongoing nationwide lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Key indices continued their rally mood to reach at fresh intraday high points in last leg of trade, taking support from Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal assured that the ministry will make efforts for release of 'urgent and important' export orders which are stuck for some reasons. He said the ministry is working aggressively to revitalize exports, and looking for export opportunities to expand. Investors paid no heed towards UN report stating that India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, warning that the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. Investors also awaited the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data to be out later in the day. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 1265.66 points or 4.23% to 31,159.62, while the CNX Nifty was up by 363.15 points or 4.15% to 9,111.90.