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India’s steel demand likely to contract by 14-17% in FY21 due to COVID-19: Crisil

17 Apr 2020 Evaluate

Rating agency Crisil in its latest report has said that steel demand in India is likely to contract by 14-17 per cent in the current financial year (FY21) as the construction activities expected to get further impacted due to second phase of nationwide lockdown to fight against deadly novel coronavirus. It said the lockdown will not just affect construction activities, but also automobile production, which will thereby impact steel demand. However, it said maintaining a pessimistic approach, assuming that partial lockdown continues through Q2 and construction activities and automobile production begin from Q2 FY21, demand contraction will increase to 22-25 percent.

On a quarterly basis, the agency said steel demand would be a washout in the first quarter of this fiscal, given the pan-India lockdown that would hurt construction. All automobile plants have also been shut, which will further weaken demand prospects. Also, it noted that since there is also no respite from the capital goods industry in the current scenario, demand will pick up only from the second half of this fiscal.

The report further stated that a full-fledged recovery will take longer because of weak demand from infrastructure on account of lower capex by government, as funds are diversion towards health and public welfare. It also stated that building and construction would contract this fiscal on account of weak demand from real estate and private individual home builders. Also, it said supply constraints for the automobile sector as well as muted demand with estimated gradual recovery only in the second half would lead to sluggish wholesale offtake.

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