Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the Indian logistics sector is likely to witness a 6-8 percent fall in the current financial year (FY21) on account of rapid outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) disease. It noted that the rapid rise of Covid-19 pandemic and the government’s decision to contain the disease outbreak in India through a 40-day lockdown is adversely impacting the logistics sector, which has seen a sharp fall in freight availability because of restrictions on production of non-essential goods and shortage of fleet for movement of essential goods owing to dearth of drivers, thereby resulting in spike in truck rentals.
According to the report, in Q3 FY2020, revenue of ICRA’s sample of 12 large logistics players had declined by 2.6 percent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) as compared to a growth of 18.6 percent in Q3 FY2019 and 1.9 percent in Q2 FY2020, in line with the continued moderation in GDP growth, which hit a 27-quarter low of 4.7 percent, resulting in subdued freight availability. ICRA expects the trend to continue in Q4 FY2020 and Q1 FY2021 with a greater degree of subdued performance.
The report further stated that muted consumer demand in sectors such as automotive, FMCG, capital goods and retail, coupled with the slowdown in production of bulk industrial commodities, would adversely impact the growth of the sector. Further, it said the immediate term growth prospects of the sector also remain subdued owing to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exacerbated the Indian macroeconomic growth scenario.
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