CARE Ratings has said India's GDP growth may decline to 1.1 per cent in the current financial year (FY 21) due to the coronavirus pandemic. The rating agency added that the estimate has a downward bias, saying predicting the recovery is very difficult at present. The agency also said that currently, it is not sure when the pandemic will subside or end and what would be the wider ramifications of the same. However, it mentioned agriculture and government sectors will statistically provide an upward thrust to the economy, which will have many other sectors under pressure.
Further, it said mining and quarrying, manufacturing and construction sectors will contract during this financial year. Financial services, real estate and professional services will have a muted growth of 0.5 per cent. It also stated that demand will be low in the economy and the employment front will be challenging. Investment, which has been slow for the past few years, will be subdued as there is surplus capacity and government attention will be more on relief than capital expenditure measures.
Besides, it said the private sector will focus more on completing projects than going in for new ones and the foreign trade will be depressed given recessionary conditions in most countries. It said the restrictions on the movement of non-essential commodities imposed by the states will ensure that the country will not be able to achieve the GST collection target of Rs 1 lakh per month.
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