CRISIL, domestic rating agency, has nearly halved its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for India to 1.8 percent for FY21 while projecting total losses of Rs 10 lakh crore or Rs 7,000 per person due to disastrous lockdowns to control COVID-19 pandemic. It warned lockdowns are showing a disastrous impact on the economy and could lead to a permanent loss of GDP, unemployment and poverty, despite relief packages.
The agency, which blamed the government response to the crisis to being measured and asked it to drastically up the support, had a GDP growth estimate of 6 percent for FY21, which was last revised to 3.5 percent in late March. It said that the economic growth forecasts are premised on a normal monsoon, sharp fall in oil prices lending a helping hand and the effect of pandemic subsiding in the first quarter of the fiscal year. The risk factors include a dip in global growth, restrictions continuing in India and a second wave of cases emerging up.
Besides, it said with the threat of infections still looming, it acknowledged that policymakers are grappling with a dilemma right now on whether to extend the lockdown beyond May 3 or extend it further which will entail economic costs. There is also a worry of a burst out in infections if the social distancing norms are not followed. It added that if the norms are followed strictly, there will be reverses on economic activity and infuse uncertainties on spending.
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