Benchmarks to get cautious start amid rising coronavirus cases

Indian markets wipeout all gains and ended lower on Tuesday amid concerns over muted corporate earnings and increased uncertainty over the economic situation due to extended lockdown. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid rise in crude oil prices overnight coupled with concerns over rising coronavirus cases in India. As per latest data shared by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, coronavirus cases in India are racing towards 47,000 even as COVID-19 related death count is set to touch 1600-mark. There will be also some cautiousness with ICRA’s report that the incremental credit growth in the year ending March 2020 declined by 64% from Rs 16.79 lakh crore in the previous year to Rs 6.04 lakh crore. Also, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has said the Covid-19 crisis has led to a spike in the country's unemployment rate to 27.11% for the week ended May 3, up from the under 7% level before the start of the pandemic in mid-March. Though, traders may take note of Global ratings agency S&P’s statement that additional financial stimulus is necessary in India to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the country's weak fiscal position. Meanwhile, the government has hiked excise duty by a record Rs 10 per litre on petrol and Rs 13 per litre on diesel to garner Rs 1.6 trillion additional revenue as it repeated its time-tested formula of not passing on gains arising from a slump in international oil prices. There will be some buzz in the gems and jewellery stocks with a private report that India's gold imports plunged 99.9% year-on-year in April to their lowest in nearly three decades as air travel was banned and jewellery shops were closed amid a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus. Tourism industry stocks will be in focus as apex sectoral body Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality (FAITH) doubled its loss guidance for India's tourism sector to Rs 10 lakh crore on account of impact of COVID-19 pandemic. There will be some reaction in cotton related industry stocks with Care Rating’s report that Indian cotton yarn industry is likely to witness a decline in revenue and moderation in profit margins in the short-term due to weak demand and shutting of manufacturing units following the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors will be eyeing the Markit Services PMI data for April to be released later in the day. Also, there will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.

The US markets closed in green on Tuesday buoyed by optimism about a gradual reopening of businesses around the country. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday as oil prices continued to move higher.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks traded with a positive bias for most part of the day but selling activity which took place during late hour of trade mainly forced the markets to cut all of their gains and ended Tuesday’s session in red terrain, amid selling in Realty, Banking and Finance counters. The benchmarks staged a gap up opening, following firm cues from their global peers. Traders found some support with report that the RBI is considering a proposal for extending the moratorium on bank loans by another three months to help people and industry impacted by the ongoing lockdown to contain COVID-19, with further extension of the nationwide lockdown. Market participants took note of report that market regulator SEBI has said that entities providing capital and debt market services will continue to remain operational during the nationwide lockdown which has been extended for another two weeks to contain the spread of Covid-19. Though, key indices failed to hold initial gains and slid lower in the last hour of trading, amid cooling off buying interest across sectors. Some anxiety also came with domestic rating agency ICRA estimating that the India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might contract by as much as 20 per cent in the first quarter of current financial year (Q1FY21) and is expected to overcome some lost ground in the remainder of the year but still close FY21 down by up to 2 per cent after the government announced graded relaxations in the lockdown. Investors also awaited January-March earnings from large cap companies such as ICICI Bank due this week for domestic cues. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 261.84 points or 0.83% to 31,453.51, while the CNX Nifty was down by 87.90 points or 0.95% to 9,205.60.