Moody’s downgrades India’s sovereign rating to ‘Baa3’ from ‘Baa2’

02 Jun 2020 Evaluate

Global credit ratings agency -- Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded India’s sovereign rating to ‘Baa3’ from ‘Baa2’, saying there will be challenges in implementation of policies to mitigate risks of a sustained period of low growth and deteriorating fiscal position. It has downgraded the Government of India’s foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer ratings to Baa3 from Baa2. It has also downgraded India’s local-currency senior unsecured rating to Baa3 from Baa2, and its short-term local-currency rating to P-3 from P-2. The outlook remains negative.

The negative outlook reflects dominant, mutually-reinforcing, downside risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system that could lead to a more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength than Moody’s currently projects. ‘Baa3’ is the lowest investment grade - just a notch above junk status. Besides, it said the Covid-19 pandemic amplifies vulnerabilities in India''s credit profile such as slower growth relative to the country's potential, rising debt and further weakening of debt affordability and persistent stress in parts of the financial system.

Moody’s had in November 2017, after a gap of 13 years, upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating by a notch to Baa2 from Baa3. Moody's said its upgrade of India's ratings to Baa2 in November 2017 was based on the expectation that effective implementation of key reforms would strengthen the sovereign's credit profile through a gradual but persistent improvement in economic, institutional and fiscal strength. Ratings agency said since then, implementation of these reforms has been relatively weak and has not resulted in material credit improvements, indicating limited policy effectiveness. 

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