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India's economy to contract 3.2% in FY21: World Bank

09 Jun 2020 Evaluate

The World Bank in its latest edition of the Global Economic Prospect has said that India's economy will shrink by 3.2 percent in the current financial year (FY21) as it joined a chorus of international agencies that are forecasting a contraction in growth rate due to the coronavirus lockdown halting economic activity. The COVID-19 pandemic and the multi-phased lockdown imposed to curb its spread has resulted in a devastating blow to the Indian economy.

The World Bank said spillovers from the weaker global growth and balance sheet stress in the financial sector will also weigh on activity, despite some support from the fiscal stimulus and continued monetary policy easing. It mentioned the central bank has been purchasing government bonds to further ease the financial conditions. The Indian government has also increased its spending on healthcare to bolster the COVID-19 response, wage support, in-kind and cash transfers to lower-income households, deferral of tax payments, as well as loan and liquidity support for small businesses and financial institutions.

Besides, it said the growth rate of the Indian economy in fiscal 2017 was seven percent, which dropped to 6.1 percent in fiscal 2018 and to 4.2 percent in fiscal 2020. The real impact of the COVID-19 and lockdown would be felt in the FY21 beginning April. The World Bank revised its January projection on India by a massive negative nine percent for the year 2020 and minus three percent for the year 2021. The contraction in the Indian economy will have a spillover impact in South Asia. Growth in the region is projected to register a contraction of -2.7 percent in 2020 and is marked by high uncertainty.

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