HSBC India services PMI jumps to 7-month high in September

04 Oct 2012 Evaluate

Service sector activity in India expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in September, driven by firm demand and ‘resilience’ of the sector. The service sector, which makes up nearly 60 percent of India's economic output, extended its growth momentum for the eleven consecutive month.  According to the seasonally adjusted HSBC Business Activity Index, the service sector activity soared to 55.00 in September, as against 54.3 in the previous month. A figure above 50 signals increase in production while, a number below 50 indicates contraction. Furthermore, production in the manufacturing sector expanded solidly, with growth accelerating from August.

Meanwhile, new orders at private sector companies in India expanded at a sharp rate, the fastest in seven months.  Additionally, job creation was recorded in the Indian private sector during September, marking a seven-month sequence of expanding workforces. Furthermore, services and manufacturing firms both signaled increasing payroll numbers, with the rate of growth faster at manufacturers. However, with services companies reporting a depletion of backlogs but manufacturers signaling a solid accumulation, the volume of outstanding business in the Indian private sector increased only slightly. Basically, persistent power cuts continued to affect backlogs of work in the manufacturing sector.

Extending the current inflationary period to 40 months, the composite data posted a further increase in output cost, but the rate of increase of service providers was at a slower pace than manufacturers. Meanwhile, even input cost inflation persisted in the Indian private sector in August. Manufacturers registered the fastest increase in input prices since June, and linked persistent inflation to rising raw material and diesel prices.

However, the HSBC PMI survey further underscored inflation pressures to have firmed again on the back of rising costs. Thus, with inflation risks still lingering, the world’s most aggressive central bank RBI has little room to manoeuvre, although further progress on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms may eventually pave the way for some easing.  Additionally, although services companies remained optimistic regarding the short-term business outlook, the degree of positive sentiment in September was at a six-month low.

The government recently has taken a number of reform initiatives such as opening the multi-brand retail and aviation sectors to FDI, hiking diesel prices and capping the number of subsidised LPG cylinders. In another round of big-ticket reforms, the Union Cabinet is likely to approve the proposal for raising the FDI cap in the insurance sector to 49 percent and opening up the pension sector to foreign investment.

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