The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) has forecasted that the Indian economy is expected to contract by 4% during the current financial year, hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. It added that countries in ‘Developing Asia’ will ‘barely grow’ in 2020. However, it also said China is expected to record a positive growth of 1.8% in 2020, sharply down from 6.1% in 2019.
As per the report, growth in Indian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to 3.1% in the last quarter, slowest since early 2003. Economic growth slowed to 4.2% in the whole of the last fiscal year as both exports and investment started to contract. High-frequency indicators such as purchasing managers’ indexes fell to all-time lows in April, reflecting the bleak outlook. Migrant workers have gone home to their villages after losing their jobs in the cities and will be slow to return even after containment measures are relaxed.
Thus, India's economy is forecast to contract by 4% in fiscal year to be ending on March 31, 2021, before growing 5% in fiscal year to be ending March 2022. For the countries in Developing Asia, ADB forecasts growth of 0.1% in 2020. This is down from the 2.2% forecast in April and would be the slowest growth for the region since 1961. ‘Developing Asia’ refers to a group of over 40 countries that are members of the ADB.
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