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India very likely to come out with another round of fiscal stimulus package: Fitch

23 Jun 2020 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings in its latest report has stated that India is very likely to come out with another round of fiscal stimulus package, worth about 1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the coming months. Fitch, which recently revised India's sovereign rating outlook to 'negative' from 'stable', said it has factored in the outgo for additional fiscal stimulus while deciding on the rating action.

Fitch Director Sovereign Ratings Thomas Rookmaaker stated that COVID-19 is still in India and it is very likely that the government will have to spend a bit more on fiscal measures to support the economy. He said ‘in our forecast we have factored in a larger stimulus package, not just 1 percent of GDP of fiscal measures that have been announced so far. You may recall that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced 10 percent of GDP as measures, but 9 percentage points were nonfiscal in nature. There was also an announcement of bond issuance, borrowing requirement of government and that was 2 percentage points of GDP. That could give an indication that another 1 percentage points could come in the months ahead to provide relief for those who need it.’

Rookmaaker further said while reforms will help boost growth going ahead, it would depend on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on businesses and financial sector. He also said ‘the question is to what extent the businesses and financial sector is scarred by pandemic. He added that the SMEs have been hit by a number of shocks in the past couple of years and the big question is to what extent the financial sector will be able to perform the role as supplier of credit and facilitate GDP growth.’

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