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  3. Indian economy to shrink 3.1% in 2020: Moody's

Indian economy to shrink 3.1% in 2020: Moody's

23 Jun 2020 Evaluate

Moody's Investors Service, in its June update to Global Macro Outlook (2020-21), has projected that the Indian economy to shrink 3.1% in 2020 and said clashes with China on the border also suggest rising geopolitical risks in the Asian region where countries are particularly vulnerable to changes in geopolitical dynamics. Besides, it pegged India's annual growth at 0.2% in April, the forecast has been sharply revised after taking into consideration the disruptions due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the agency expects the economy to register 6.9% growth in 2021.

In its report, Moody's has revised down its 2020 growth forecast for India as incoming data show the extent of coronavirus-related disruption in January-March and April-June quarters. It said ‘April-June quarter of 2020 will go down in history as the worst quarter for the global economy since at least World War II. We continue to expect a gradual recovery beginning in the second half of the year, but that outcome will depend on whether governments can reopen their economies while also safeguarding public health.’

Moody's has forecast that China would be the only G-20 country to post growth this year. It added that the expectation is that China would grow 1% in 2020, followed by a strong rebound of 7.1% in 2021. According to it, a rebound in demand would determine the ability of businesses and labour markets to recover from the shock. It also expects G-20 economies to contract by 4.6% in 2020 as a whole, followed by 5.2% growth in 2021. Recently, Moody's had cut India's credit rating by a notch to lowest investment grade 'Baa3' citing challenges in implementing policies to boost growth and restrict fiscal slippage.

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