CRISIL downgrades a record 484 firms in H1FY13

05 Oct 2012 Evaluate

Rating agency, CRISIL, has downgraded 484 companies in the first half (H1) of 2012-13, the highest for any six-month period, thereby underscoring a mounting pressure on corporates' credit quality amid slowing demand and pressure on liquidity. However, with pressure on profitability and on economic growth showing signs of abating, CRISIL is expecting the credit ratio to begin bottoming out. At the same time, the rating agency is forecasting the rating downgrades to continue outnumbering upgrades in the near term, although their severity and intensity may decline.

CRISIL in its report stated that, “having declined continuously for nine quarters, EBIDTA margins are now likely to increase. Also, the pressure on GDP growth seems to have eased. Together, these factors should ensure that the credit ratio does not decline materially from current levels” CRISIL’s credit ratio (ratio of upgrades to downgrades) declined to 0.66 in first half of 2012-13 from 0.91 in H2 of 2011-12, primarily on account of slowdown in economy. 

Of the 484 downgrades down by the rating agency, 183 were to ’default’ category, which were primarily from rating categories ‘CRISIL BB’ and lower, which are inherently more vulnerable to defaults. The rating upgrades, on the other hand, were supported by improved business performance due to stabilization of past capital expenditure (capex), and consequently, improved cash flows.

Among the downgrades, one third of the downgrades were down among the highly-indebted industries, including power, construction, textile and engineering & capital goods. The highest upgrades rates, on the other hand, were in retail consumption linked sectors, such as packaged foods and home furnishing.

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