India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that the gross state domestic product (GSDP) of all states in India is likely to contract in the range of 1.4 to 14.3 percent in the current financial year (FY21) due to the impact of Covid-19-induced lockdown on economic activities. It also said the states that will witness a double-digit contraction in GSDP growth in FY21 are Assam, Goa, Gujarat and Sikkim. It noted that the top five major states where the impact of lockdown was the most pronounced are Karnataka, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Odisha. Similarly, the five major states where impact of lockdown was the least pronounced are Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
The report stated that despite the nation-wide lockdown enforced on March 25, 2020, several economic activities defined as essentials remained operational. It said the impact of the lockdown on sectors namely agriculture, industry and services were differently. It also said that since agricultural activities were less impacted, the states having a higher share of agriculture are expected to have suffered less compared to the one where the share of agriculture is low.
According to the report, some sub-sectors especially in the services such as banking and financial services, IT and IT-enabled services were less impacted, because they were able to readjust their operations remotely owing to the high penetration of digital platform in their business operations. It added that the states in which the share of these services is high are expected to have suffered less during the lockdown compared to the one where share of these services is low.
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