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FICCI survey estimates India’s GDP growth for FY21 at (-) 4.5 percent

13 Jul 2020 Evaluate

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in its Economic Outlook Survey has projected India’s annual median Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for current financial year (FY21) at (-) 4.5 per cent. It said with the rapid spread of COVID-19 pandemic manifesting into an economic and healthcare crisis globally, the latest forecast marks a sharp downward revision from the growth estimate of 5.5 per cent reported in the January 2020 survey.  As per the survey, the quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by (-) 14.2 per cent in the first quarter of current financial year (Q1FY21), with a minimum estimate of (-) 25 per cent and a maximum estimate of (-) 7.4 per cent.  Economic activity-wise annual forecast indicated a median growth of 2.7 per cent for agriculture and allied activities for FY21.

Agriculture seems to be the only sector with a silver lining right now. There is an apparent upside as far as the performance of monsoon is concerned this year and the water reservoir levels in the country stand at good levels. It mentioned the rural sector supported by a steady agriculture performance and hopefully a contained number of COVID-19 cases will be a key demand generator for India this year. It further said that industry and services sector, on the other hand, are expected to contract by 11.4 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively in FY21. Weak demand and subdued capacity utilisation rates were already manifesting into a drag on investments and the COVID-19 pandemic has further extended the timeline for recovery.

Even though, it added activity in sectors like consumer durables, FMCG is gaining traction, majority of the companies are still operating at low capacity utilisation rates. Labour availability and feeble demand remain as major issues for the companies. Therefore, fresh investments will be difficult to come by in the near to medium term. Also, a significant change in consumption patterns is expected on back of uncertainty with regard to jobs and income losses.

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