Morgan Stanley estimates India’s GDP at 7.4% from 7.8% for 2011-12

19 Aug 2011 Evaluate

The global financial services firm-Morgan Stanley has reduced its yearend target for the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index by 15% to 18,850, and on the other hand it reduced its forecast for India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for current financial year ending on March 31, 2012 to 7.4% from 7.8% and it has also cut its estimate for 2012-12 to 7.6% from 8% made earlier.

Persistently high inflation, higher cost of capital, cut in the ratio of fiscal spending to GDP, a weak global capital markets environment and slow pace of investment is likely to cause a further slowdown in growth, the report said. It also stated that India’s economic growth and corporate earnings will slow down, with the cut in the BSE index target and the uncertain global economy.

Due to the uncertainty in global economy, debt crisis in Europe and United States and slowdown in economy growth along with high inflation, sentiments in markets have been bearish from quite some time. The Sensex declined by 250 points to 16219.35, which is below from August 9, showing almost more than 20% decline from November 2010 peak. Last year the BSE Sensex closed at 20,509.09 which are around 8% higher than the Morgan Stanley’s estimates for this year end.   

Earlier, Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth this year, citing an insufficient policy response to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, weakened confidence and the prospect of fiscal tightening. On the other hand, outlook for the global economy was underscored by a Morgan Stanley note cutting its 2011 and 2012 global gross domestic product estimates. It cut its 2011 global GDP forecast to 3.9% from 4.2%, and its 2012 view to 3.8% from 4.5%.

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