India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that private sector’s capital expenditure (capex) is set to contract by 20-26 percent in the current financial year (FY21) due to COVID-19 pandemic-led business disruptions. It also warned that in the absence of a broad-based pickup in domestic and external demand, faster resolution of stressed assets and deep structural reforms, private sector investments are unlikely to recover meaningfully before FY25. It noted that in fact, the pandemic outbreak and ensuing national lockdowns have crippled the economy, making coprorates and individuals risk averse.
As per the report, as uncertainties around demand recovery have persisted and the deleveraging process is yet to kick start, the private sector capex growth has remained mute or low – clocking only 5 percent annual growth since FY17. It said since then, growth in overall gross fixed capital formation continued to fall over FY18-FY19. It also stated that corporates' capacity utilisation level continues to hover below 75 percent since the last round of growth capex between FY12 and FY14. Weak demand growth, even prior to the pandemic outbreak, resulted in shortfalls in cash flow generation, thus delaying their deleveraging.
The report further said that while capacity utilisation will take at least another four years to peak, broad-based deleveraging will take another six to seven years and this will have the maximum impact on capex this year, which may contract by 20-26 percent due to the COVID-19-led business disruptions, before growing 15-20 percent next fiscal year. It noted that expecting low capex intensity sectors to be early movers and capital intensive sectors to see prolonged wait.
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