Acknowledging the decision of Indian banks to raise fresh capital, S&P Global Ratings has said the move will provide stability to the institutions during these rocky times and help them withstand the economic slump amid the COVID-19 pandemic. It said the large capital-raising is credit positive. It added that Indian banks that have expressed an intention to raise equity include ICICI Bank (Rs 15,000 crore), Axis Bank (Rs 15,000 crore), Yes Bank (Rs 15,000 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 20,000 crore), Bank of Baroda (Rs 9,000 crore), and Punjab National Bank (Rs 7,000 crore).
The rating agency also said it believes top-tier Indian private sector banks are adequately capitalised. They are raising further capital to strengthen their balance sheets, unlike state-owned banks, which generally have only small buffers over regulatory capital.
Further, S&P Global Ratings projected non-performing loans to shoot up to 13-14% of the total loans in the current financial year, from an estimated 8.5% in 2019-20. It also said credit costs may rise to about 3.7% of average loans in 2020-21. This cost should drop to 2% in fiscal 2022, but this would still be above the 15-year average of 1.5%. According to it, most Indian public sector banks improved their capitalisation last year, which should provide some support. The common equity tier-1 (CET1) ratio of public sector banks (PSBs) was 10.1% as of December 31, 2019, higher than the regulatory requirement of 8% (including a capital conservation buffer).
Similarly, PSB's tier-1 capital adequacy ratio was 11.1%, higher than the regulatory requirement of 7%. The agency expects that government-owned banks in India in aggregate will be able to absorb the estimated credit losses without breaching the regulatory minimum, but these banks need capital to grow.
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