India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its report has said that the government's fiscal deficit is estimated to touch 7.6% in FY21, more than double the Budget Estimate (BE), as the nation spends extra to lessen the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic while facing a shortfall in incomes. It said at the consolidated level, the fiscal deficit of the Centre and states will collectively come at 12.1%, with states contributing 4.5%.
It also said the government has already announced a stimulus package damaging the fiscal math by 1.1% and there is a demand coming for a second package. As per the report, economic activities have slowed down as a result of long lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It added that India's gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by 5.3%, while states like Assam, Goa, Gujarat and Sikkim are expected to witness a double-digit contraction.
With the growth and revenues going down, it said the obvious impact will be on the fiscal deficit, which is considered an important macroeconomic health indicator. The agency said the growth slowdown will have a significant impact on the asset quality of the financial sector, and both banks and non-banks would require more capital to continue lending. It further said reverse migration out of cities and industrial towns to their hometowns will delay the manufacturing sector's recovery and may also translate into elevated wages.
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